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Bibit Weekly – BI Rate Ditahan hingga Rencana Tarif Baru AS

Rilis data ekonomi AS hingga update eskalasi ketegangan AS–Iran. Baca selengkapnya!

Reksa Dana | SBN | Obligasi FR | Saham   📊 MARKET SUMMARY Data Ekonomi AS Tunjukkan Mixed Signals: Biro Analisis Ekonomi AS melaporkan ekonomi AS selama 2025 tumbuh di bawah ekspektasi, namun PCE inti AS Desember 2025 mencatat kenaikan tertinggi sejak Februari 2025 melampaui ekspektasi konsensus. → berpotensi menimbulkan mixed signals untuk pemangkasan suku bunga, probabilitas pemangkasan relatif stabil. Bank Indonesia (BI) mempertahankan BI Rate: sesuai ekspektasi pasar. → BI masih mencermati ruang penurunan sembari memperkuat transmisi kebijakan. Update Kebijakan Tarif AS: Presiden Trump berencana menaikkan tarif sementara dari 10% menjadi 15% untuk impor AS dari semua negara, setelah program sebelumnya dibatalkan oleh Mahkamah Agung AS. Di sisi lain, Presiden Prabowo dan Trump telah menandatangani kesepakatan dagang final RI–AS. → berpotensi mendorong ekspor komoditas unggulan dan pertumbuhan, namun menekan neraca dagang jangka pendek. Eskalasi Ketegangan Geopolitik AS–Iran: Presiden AS Trump mengatakan bahwa Iran diberi batas waktu 10–15 hari untuk mencapai kesepakatan terkait program nuklirnya. → kekhawatiran gangguan pasokan meningkatkan harga minyak. MARKET UPDATE Foreign Flow Saham Mingguan Kembali Positif Latest Update (20/02/2026) Latest WoW YtD IHSG 8.271,8 ▲ +0,72% ▼ -4,34% IDR 10Y Govt Bond Yield 6,46% ▲ +6 bps ▲ +39 bps Bunga Deposito 12M 3,65% ▲ +18 bps ▼ -5 bps Foreign Flow (Dalam Triliun Rupiah) 1W 1M YtD Obligasi -4,03 -3,55 -0,87 Saham +2,03 -21,07 -14,51 Sumber: Bloomberg per 20 Februari 2026, kecuali data foreign flow obligasi per 19 Februari 2026.   🌏 What Happened in the Market Biro analisis ekonomi AS mencatat bahwa indeks pengeluaran konsumsi pribadi (PCE) inti AS — yang menjadi tolok ukur bagi The Fed dalam menilai perekonomian AS — mengalami inflasi 0,4% MoM pada Desember 2025 (vs November 2025: inflasi 0,2% MoM), di atas ekspektasi konsensus (0,3% MoM) dan menandai kenaikan tertinggi sejak Februari 2025. Biro analisis ekonomi AS juga mencatat bahwa estimasi awal PDB AS pada 4Q25 +1,4% YoY (vs 3Q25: +4,4% YoY), di bawah ekspektasi konsensus (+3% YoY). Hasil ini membuat PDB AS selama 2025 mencapai +2,2% YoY (vs 2024: +2,8% YoY). Presiden AS, Donald Trump, mengatakan pada Sabtu (21/2) bahwa dirinya akan menaikkan tarif sementara dari 10% menjadi 15% untuk impor AS dari semua negara, setelah Mahkamah Agung AS pada Jumat (20/2) membatalkan program tarif sebelumnya. Sebelumnya Presiden Prabowo dan Presiden Trump pada Kamis (19/2) menandatangani kesepakatan perdagangan final, di mana AS menurunkan tarif Indonesia dari 32% menjadi 19% serta menghapus tarif tinggi pada sejumlah ekspor unggulan. Sebagai imbalannya, Indonesia menghapus bea masuk atas lebih dari 99% barang AS dan berkomitmen membeli produk AS senilai US$33 miliar. Menyusul perkembangan terbaru, Menko Perekonomian, Airlangga Hartarto, mengatakan bahwa kesepakatan perdagangan antara Indonesia–AS masih berprogres dan akan ada perlakuan berbeda untuk negara–negara yang telah menandatangani kesepakatan perdagangan dengan AS. Harga minyak Brent naik ke ~US$71,8/barrel pada penutupan perdagangan hari Jumat (20/2), menandai level tertinggi dalam 6 bulan terakhir. Presiden Donald Trump mengatakan pada Kamis (19/2) bahwa dirinya menetapkan batas waktu maksimum sekitar 10–15 hari bagi Iran untuk mencapai kesepakatan terkait program nuklirnya, di tengah pergerakan militer terbesar AS di Timur Tengah sejak 2003. Sementara itu, Iran dikabarkan telah merilis pemberitahuan kepada awak penerbangan pada Kamis (19/2) terkait rencana peluncuran roket di sejumlah wilayah bagian selatan Iran. Bank Indonesia (BI) mempertahakankan BI Rate di level 4,75%, sejalan dengan ekspektasi konsensus. Sementara itu, pertumbuhan kredit perbankan mencapai +9,96% YoY pada Januari 2026 (vs. Desember 2025: +9,69% YoY, Januari 2025: +10,27% YoY), sejalan dengan target 2026 dari Bank Indonesia di kisaran +8–12% YoY. Terkait nilai tukar rupiah, BI akan meningkatkan intensitas intervensi melalui transaksi di pasar domestik dan memperdalam pasar valas rupiah–yuan guna mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap dolar AS. 💡 What's the Impact? Secara Global: Pelaku pasar saat ini masih memperhatikan perkembangan negosiasi AS–Iran yang dijadwalkan melanjutkan perundingan pada Kamis (26/2). Kekhawatiran pasar terhadap potensi gangguan pasokan minyak global akibat eskalasi ketegangan AS–Iran membuat harga minyak Brent naik ke level tertinggi dalam enam bulan terakhir. Perlambatan PDB dan inflasi PCE inti yang tinggi menimbulkan mixed signals terhadap ekspektasi pemangkasan suku bunga. Probabilitas suku bunga AS ditahan pada pertemuan Maret 2026 tercatat di level 96% per Jumat (20/2), relatif stabil dibandingkan pekan lalu di level ~91% berdasarkan CME FedWatch Tool.  Untuk Indonesia: Meski suku bunga BI Rate belum dipangkas kembali, penurunan suku bunga kredit dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Laju pertumbuhan kredit sendiri semakin mendekati angka double-digit per Januari 2026, dibandingkan pada pertengahan 2025 dan 3Q25 yang berkisar +7–8% YoY.  💭 Why Should I Care? Secara global, eskalasi ketegangan antara AS–Iran meningkatkan ketidakpastian geopolitik. Ancaman terbaru Trump terhadap Iran mengindikasikan potensi kampanye militer yang lebih luas dibandingkan serangan terhadap program nuklir Iran pada Juni 2025 lalu.   Di sisi domestik, keputusan BI untuk mempertahankan suku bunga konsisten dengan upaya menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah, sekaligus mendukung pencapaian target inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Per Jumat (20/2), konsensus Bloomberg masih mengekspektasikan pemangkasan suku bunga BI dan The Fed masing–masing sebanyak -50 bps hingga akhir 2026.   Di saat yang sama, penurunan tarif AS berpotensi mendorong ekspor komoditas unggulan Indonesia dan memperkuat pertumbuhan. Namun, komitmen peningkatan impor dari AS dapat menekan neraca perdagangan dalam jangka pendek.  🔎 Product Highlight Top Reksa Dana Pasar Uang di Bibit Cocok untuk: simpan dana darurat & parkir dana jangka pendek Return reksa dana per 20 Februari 2026.  Berdasarkan data historis, tidak menjamin kinerja di masa depan.  investasi sekarang  → Top Reksa Dana Obligasi di Bibit Cocok untuk: investasi jangka panjang dengan risiko moderat Return reksa dana per 20 Februari 2026. Berdasarkan data historis, tidak menjamin kinerja di masa depan.  investasi sekarang  → Kinerja Saham Perbankan dalam 5 Tahun Terakhir Data saham per 20 Februari 2026, memperhitungkan price return dan dividend. Berdasarkan data historis, tidak menjamin kinerja di masa depan.  investasi sekarang  → In Case You Missed It 🗓️ ORI029 Berakhir, SBN Selanjutnya SR024 Terbit 2 Minggu Lagi – Setelah penutupan ORI029, pemerintah akan menerbitkan SBN seri baru yaitu Sukuk Ritel seri SR024 yang bisa dibeli di Bibit 6 Maret - 15 April 2026. SR024 memberikan fixed rate return yang pasti hingga jatuh tempo.  Other Articles 🏦 Indo Banks: Capturing Momentum Reversal with ~8% Dividend Cushion – Titik terendah kinerja Big 4 Banks telah terlewati dan momentum mulai berbalik positif, membuka peluang pemulihan level valuasi di tengah potensi dividend yield hingga ~8%. Top picks: BBCA dan BMRI.   🤝 RI–AS Capai Kesepakatan Dagang Final & Teken Sejumlah MoU – Presiden Prabowo Subianto dan Presiden Donald Trump pada Kamis (19/2) menandatangani kesepakatan perdagangan final antara kedua negara, berikut rangkuman isi kesepakatan tersebut. 🏦 BBCA Bank–Only Jan 2026: Laba Bersih +6% YoY – BBCA mencatatkan laba bersih bank–only sebesar Rp5 T pada Januari 2026 (+6% YoY, +13% MoM), setara 8,1% estimasi konsolidasi 2026F konsensus (vs. Januari 2025: 8,2% realisasi konsolidasi 2025). Reksa Dana SBN Obligasi FR Saham Writer: Bibit Investment Research Team Disclaimer: Konten dibuat untuk tujuan edukasi dan bukan merupakan rekomendasi untuk membeli/menjual produk tertentu. +622150864230 info@bibit.id Subscribe and Follow Us: Email ini dikirim oleh PT Bibit Tumbuh Bersama, Agen Penjual Efek Reksa Dana (APERD) yang terdaftar dan diawasi oleh Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. Informasi di dalam email ini bersifat rahasia dan hanya ditujukan bagi investor yang menggunakan APERD PT Bibit Tumbuh Bersama dan menerima email ini. Dilarang memperbanyak, menyebarkan, dan menyalin informasi rahasia ini kepada pihak lain tanpa persetujuan PT Bibit Tumbuh Bersama. Reksa dana merupakan produk pasar modal dan bukan produk APERD. APERD tidak bertanggung jawab atas risiko pengelolaan portofolio yang dilakukan oleh Manajer Investasi. Semua investasi mengandung risiko dan adanya kemungkinan kerugian atas nilai investasi. Kinerja masa lalu tidak mencerminkan kinerja di masa depan. Kinerja historikal, keuntungan yang diharapkan dan proyeksi probabilitas disediakan untuk tujuan informasi dan ilustrasi. Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, klik di sini. If you no longer wish to receive this email, click on the following link: Unsubscribe     Copyright © 2026. All rights reserved.